FRIEDRICH LIST

... I could not watch the astonishing effects of railways in England and North America without wishing that my German fatherland would partake of the same benefits, and....

... having settled in Saxony for some years, I determined to devote my leisure time to exploring the relevant local conditions, as far as this is possible for a stranger, and although my researches were but superficial, their results were so important as to induce me to submit them to you for further examination.

Above all, the level and firm surface stretching in all directions from Leipzig, which seems to in- vite its inhabitants to put down rails without further preparation, makes this area particularly suitable for the building of railways. If the occasional sharp corners of the main roads, and their progress through the middle of villages and towns, had not formed an obstacle to railway building, it might even have been advisable to lay the rails directly on that part of the main roads at present obstructed by heaps of road-building materials, in which case a very strong railway of oak rails lined with iron would have cost scarcely more than 15,000 Taler per German mile. That nature herself has done the work here . . . our American company spent 40,000 dollars per German mile to level the ground in the way in which nature has provided it here, while the rest of the permanent way cost only 15,000 dollars ...

All in all, I believe that the normal costs of a railway like our American one, calculated to trans- port annually 2-4 million cwt. coal for 7-10 years, after which it would cost 4,000 dollars per German mile to keep in repair, would come in our local terrain and with local Saxon wages to 50,000 Taler per German mile at the most, including all normal tunnels, embankments, bridges and compensation for land, but excluding all major bridges across the larger rivers, and major tunnels.

A second important consideration for this locality is its position as the heart of the German inland traffic, the printing and publishing trade, and the German factory industry.

The numbers of travellers inward and outward and in transit, including the visitors to the fair, is greater than in any other German city and would by itself justify the building of four railways of 20 miles length each. The present estimate, including those in transit, is 50,000 visitors. This would at least double to 100,000 if it were possible to make the 40 miles return journey to Leipzig for 5 Taler without spending more than 10 hours on the road; the gross revenue in that case would be 500,000 Taler, and the net revenue, after deduction of one third for costs, would be above 8% on a capital of 4 million Taler.

The quantity of freight inward and outward and in transit ... should amount, including salt and other mining products, to at least 11/2 million cwt., which would yield, on 20 miles at 10 Groschen per mile (half the present freight charges), 625,000 Taler, or, after deducting one third for costs, over 10% on the capital.

Finally there is the consumption of the city itself. All food-stuffs and fuels are more expensive than on the coast, and of worse quality. Timber is twice as expensive as in towns four or five miles away. While at these high prices the mass of the population can afford very little fuel, the hills eight miles to the South are full of coal. Factories using water or steam power are out of the question; the existing water mills are hardly sufficient for grinding the necessary flour; the black bread for the poorer part of the population is brought in from the countryside. One can see everywhere how the lack of a cheap means of transport keeps down population and industry. How otherwise are we to explain that the centre of German trade has only 40,000 inhabitants? Even if we take only the ex- isting levels of consumption, c. 60,000 klafter of wood would have costs of transport of 150,000 Taler (at 21/2 Taler a cord); other articles of consumption may be estimated at as much again.

Railways would carry wood, turf and coal at less than half the present costs. Coal from Zwickau would cost only 11/2-2 Groschen a cwt. more than at the pithead and would raise the city to an im- portant manufacturing centre. Bavaria, where flour, meat and other foodstuffs are 50-100% cheaper than in Leipzig, could export its surplus to the Erzgebirge, the Elbe and the Hansa cities. ... Cheaper food and fuel would partly enhance the well-being of the working classes, and partly lower money wages, increase population and increase the extent of industry. Cheap budding materials and low money wages would encourage building and lower the rents in the new and more distant parts of the city. On the other hand, increased population and industry would increase the rents, and thereby the value of the houses, in the centre of the city, well placed for trade and industry. In one word: population, the number of buildings, industry, trade, and the value of land and houses in Leipzig would be doubled in a short space of time, and I do not doubt for a minute that this increase in value in Leipzig alone would in a few years exceed the total capital costs of the new railways.

In an appendix I subjoin a plan for a Saxon railway system, as well as I could make it without an actual survey. According to it, the line from Leipzig to Dresden would have branches to Zwickau, Chemnitz and Freiberg, and the line from Weimar to Gotha, to Frankfort on the Main and Bamberg; by the line to Halle, the Kingdom of Saxony would be linked with the salt mines and with the river Saale; by the line to Dessau, Wittenberg or Torgau, the Elbe would be reached at a point at which it is still easily navigable. This network, which would not exceed 50 miles alto- gether, would meet all the needs of the Kingdom of Saxony....